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龜兔賽跑竟是投資之定律

龜兔賽跑相信連家中的小童也知道故事的進程,但是原來我們也可以從中悟出投資之定律:利用可預期的現金流達至目標。

故事中的兔子,的確跑得很快,可比喻為投資在股票上,股價波幅很高,來來回回,也會跟兔子一樣停滯不前,如果投資者想利用投資股票去達成目標,有機會很快就達成,也有機會停滯不前甚至倒退,往往離目標還差很遠。完全是難以估計甚麼時候達成目標。而往往市場氣氛不好而放棄投資,做成損失。

反觀故事中的烏龜 (可比喻為投資在債券) 雖然 跑得很慢,但朝著終點 (目標) 不停地前進,雖然比兔子的速度慢,但到達目標的時間是可以預期 (因為所有債息及年期都是固定的)

但龜兔賽跑的故事並不是這樣就完結,投資者除了讓烏龜不停地向目標前進外,當收到債息後,可以選擇多養數只烏龜,甚至多養數只兔子幫忙,多養烏龜可以幫助建立強大現金流,可以抵禦任何衝擊,不會輕易放棄投資,當市埸轉好,就可以更快達到目標;

但如果用債息多養兔子的話,情況就很不同。因為兔子的回報不可預期,而且市埸變幻莫測,現金流可以增加信心,可從靜待兔子跳動,但若果有一只兔子可以成功到達終點 (有數倍甚至十倍的回報) ,整個投資組合將會更快達到目標。

總結,現金流才是所有投資之根本,擁有了足夠的現金流,投資在高風險資產並沒有賣出的壓力,而且因為沒有賣出的壓力才能把回報最大化,<<窮爸爸富爸爸>>一書中也正正是帶出這個投資定律,反觀現實中有名的投資者也是先建立有現金流的資產後,才去投資高風險高回報的資產。

以下是精選債券報價


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